The outlook isn't 'grim'. The number of heroin and crack addicts is falling

01:20 The outlook isn't 'grim'. The number of heroin and crack addicts is falling 0 Comments

In the lively drugs debate following the tragic death of Amy Winehouse, it is important to keep a cool head for figures. A Datablog commentary by James Ball and Simon Rogers misunderstood some of the numbers it sought to explain (Drug deaths, misuse and overdose statistics in England, 24 July).

While correct that 206,000 people in England received an intervention for drug addiction at the last count, it was wrong that "around 62,600 completed some form of treatment". Not all who left the system in 2009-10 completed a course of treatment – many were referred to other agencies, sent to prison or dropped out.

That left about 143,400 remaining in the system, meaning they continued to derive real benefit from a course of structured treatment. They commit less crime, pose less of a risk to public health, and are in active therapy. This is an important milestone to recovery, given that four out of five patients are heroin addicts and experts acknowledge it takes several years to beat addiction.

Official statistics report "treatment completed" separately, and the latest number is 23,680, or 38% of all exits. This has doubled in four years and we anticipate the trend will continue. These clients were judged by their clinician to have overcome addiction for the substance for which they entered treatment and, in addition, were not using heroin or crack, the most problematic drugs. The definitions were tightened a few years ago to make clear all completions are "dependence free".

The Datablog claimed "only 8,112 left entirely drug-free. However, a further 15,568 left still using drugs, but defined as 'dependence free'." It was the other way round: the 15,568 were not using any drugs at all, whereas the 8,112 may have been occasional users (but not of heroin, crack, or their drug of dependence if it was different). In practice those few "still using drugs" were no longer addicted to any substance, but the clinician couldn't rule out the possibility they might be occasional users of cannabis or stimulants.

Since treatment exists to tackle dependence, and waiting times are low (90% of clients wait less than three weeks), the number in treatment is a proxy measure of problematic use. As this number has fallen from a peak of 210,000 in 2008-09 and will almost certainly fall further in the next annual statistics, the Datablog assertion that "problem drug use, and the harms that accompany it, remains on the rise" is wrong.

In addition, independent research by Glasgow University confirms the number of heroin and crack addicts in England is falling from an initial aggregate estimate of 330,000, and shortly we will publish figures showing a further and significant fall.

We therefore refute the Datablog claim that "the prognosis for the 320,000 problem drug users, the majority of whom take both heroin and crack, is grim". The number of heroin and crack addicts is falling; treatment is widely available; those in treatment are getting better and pose less harm to society; and more people are overcoming their addiction. This is a positive platform on which the government is building with its strategy to get more of those in treatment into full recovery and off drugs for good.